Dan Gardner Livres

"The secrets to successfully planning and delivering ambitious, complex projects on any scale-from home renovation to space exploration-by the world's leading expert on megaprojects. Nothing is more inspiring than a big vision that becomes a triumphant, new reality. Think of how the Empire State Building went from a sketch to the jewel of New York's skyline in twenty-one months, or how Apple's iPod went from a project with a single employee to a product launch in eleven months. These are wonderful stories. But most of the time big visions turn into nightmares. Remember Boston's "Big Dig"? Almost every sizeable city in the world has such a fiasco in its backyard. In fact, no less than 92% of megaprojects come in over budget or over schedule, or both. The cost of California's high-speed rail project soared from $33 billion to $100 billon-and won't even go where promised. More modest endeavors, whether launching a small business, organizing a conference, or just finishing a work project on time, also commonly fail. Why? Understanding what distinguishes the triumphs from the failures has been the life's work of Oxford professor Bent Flyvbjerg, dubbed "the world's leading megaproject expert." In How Big Things Get Done, he identifies the errors in judgment and decision-making that lead projects, both big and small, to fail, and the research-based principles that will make you succeed with yours"-- Provided by publisher

Everyone would benefit from better foresight, whether in finance, policy-making, or daily planning. However, people often struggle with accurate predictions. A landmark study by Wharton professor Philip Tetlock revealed that even experts' forecasts are only marginally better than chance. Yet, some experts possess genuine foresight, prompting Tetlock to explore the reasons behind this talent and whether it can be taught. In collaboration with Dan Gardner, Tetlock presents a comprehensive examination of prediction, drawing on extensive research and a large-scale forecasting tournament called the Good Judgment Project. This initiative involved thousands of ordinary individuals, including a filmmaker and a retired pipe installer, who successfully forecasted global events, outperforming benchmarks and even intelligence analysts with classified information. These exceptional forecasters, termed 'superforecasters,' demonstrate that effective prediction doesn't rely on advanced technology but on gathering diverse evidence, thinking probabilistically, collaborating, tracking performance, and embracing errors. Through compelling stories of both successful and failed forecasts, along with insights from prominent decision-makers, the authors reveal practical strategies for enhancing our predictive abilities across various domains, making this work a valuable resource for anyone seeking to improve their foresight.

Tetlock's latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions - has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight.

Every day we hear about terrorism, war and apocalypse. But the real risk of these events happening to us is about as likely as winning the lottery. Dan Gardner explains our risk perception through our brain's two simultaneous responses to risk - the ancient 'fight or flight' instinct and the rational, considered response.

In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future - everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict the future confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example- packed, sometimes darkly funny book, Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely they are to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

Schopnost předpovídat budoucnost by byla pro každého z nás cenná, ať už při investicích, uvádění nových produktů na trh nebo plánování osobních aktivit. Avšak lidé obvykle nejsou dobří prognostici. Profesor Tetlock ve své studii z roku 2005 ukázal, že i odborné předpovědi jsou často jen o něco lepší než náhoda. Někteří lidé však mají výjimečnou schopnost předpovídat budoucnost, a Tetlock se poslední dekádu snažil zjistit, proč tomu tak je a zda se to dá naučit. Tetlock a novinář Dan Gardner přinášejí mistrovské dílo o předpovídání, které vychází z dlouholetého výzkumu a velké prognostické soutěže, kterou podpořila americká vláda. Projekt Dobrý úsudek zapojil desítky tisíc obyčejných lidí, kteří měli za úkol předpovídat světové události. Někteří z nich byli překvapivě úspěšní a překonali nejen ostatní účastníky, ale i akademické experty a analytiky zpravodajských služeb. Autoři ukazují, co se můžeme naučit od těchto „superpředpovídačů“ a přinášejí příběhy úspěšných i neúspěšných předpovědí. Dobrého předpovídání lze dosáhnout sběrem informací z různých zdrojů, pravděpodobnostním uvažováním, týmovou prací a ochotou připustit chybu. Kniha představuje efektivní a vědecky podloženou metodu, jak zlepšit schopnosti předvídat budoucí události v byznysu, politice i každodenním životě.