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How do democracies emerge? This work presents a novel theory of democratization, emphasizing how events like coups, wars, and elections disrupt autocratic regimes and trigger democratic change. Through extensive qualitative and quantitative analyses, the author reveals that over ninety percent of transitions since 1800 occur in two primary ways: countries democratize after a significant violent shock, or established ruling parties democratize through elections and regain power within a democratic framework. This perspective challenges traditional theories by illustrating that violent upheavals and the preservation of autocrats—often seen as oppositional to democracy—are actually fundamental to its establishment. By examining 139 democratic transitions, the author highlights how democratization often follows both domestic shocks (such as coups and civil wars) and international shocks (like military defeat and the retreat of an autocratic hegemon), driven by autocratic insecurity and opportunities for opposition. Additionally, transitions led by ruling parties stem from their electoral confidence in democracy. These contexts help limit the power autocrats relinquish during democratization, facilitating smoother transitions. The work also offers insights into predictors of democratization, the limited benefits of events like the Arab Spring, and the best strategies for achieving long-term democratic stability, ultimately reshap
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Shock to the System, Michael Miller
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- Année de publication
- 2021
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