Beyond deterrence

Auteurs

• Alessandro Scheffler

Paramètres

• Militaire

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Key Points: Warsaw marks NATO's shift from reassurance to deterrence on its Eastern Flank, concluding its adaptation to the New Normal. The Enhanced Forward Presence (EFP) bridges the military divide between "old" and "new" members while adhering to the NATO Russia Founding Act. Although the EFP addresses many weaknesses of the Wales decisions, particularly in stationing, its implementation is still in early stages, leaving many questions unanswered. To achieve consensus, NATO adopted a dual approach of deterrence and dialogue towards Russia. This strategy reconciles differing views among allies, but ambitions for dialogue vary significantly. While a strategy for the East is established, NATO lacks a coherent approach for its Southern flank, where the role of the Alliance remains disputed. The summit highlighted Defense Capacity Building as NATO’s contribution, but this is not a comprehensive solution. Long-term efforts will be ineffective without substantial improvements in military capabilities, necessitating sustained positive trends in defense spending. The Summit also introduced a new initiative for NATO-EU cooperation, yet its success remains uncertain. The upcoming elections in the U.S. and other countries turned the Summit into a holding pattern, delaying further decisions on the Alliance’s future until the next Summit at NATO’s new headquarters in Brussels in 2017.

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• Année de publication: 2016