Increase in protein demand for China’s livestock sector and its implications for international agricultural trade

Auteurs

• Wei Sun

Paramètres

• Manuels
• Manuels universitaires

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This investigation analyzes the supply, demand, and trade of protein ingredients such as oilseed meals, fishmeal, and meat and bone meal in China, focusing on the impact of internal and external factors and macroeconomic policy changes. Utilizing a structural model for agricultural commodity markets, the study simulates the deficit status and trade situation of these protein ingredients. Econometric analyses reveal that the supply and demand for soybeans in China have become less price-responsive. Positive relationships are identified between livestock production and the demand for protein meals and oilseeds. Constraints on expanding soybean harvest areas align with the insufficient availability of protein meals in the livestock sector. However, technical advancements positively affect soybean production. The study finds that China's WTO accession has not significantly influenced soybean imports; rather, rising livestock output is the primary driver. Additionally, China's soybean imports are sensitive to price differences between domestic and global markets. Regulations concerning Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO) and food safety policies are shown to significantly impact the trade of protein meals and oilseeds. The findings suggest a substantial increase in China’s soybean import dependency rate in the coming years.

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• Année de publication: 2011