Spyros G. Makridakis Livres

This comprehensive, easy-to-use reference explains which forecasting methods work, which don't -- and why. Leading forecasters, planners, and developers address specific issues and problems of forecasting, including management requirements for forecasts, techniques for preparing forecasts, issues in forecasting applications, and managing the forecasting function. This updated edition features new chapters on load forecasting, demographic forecasting, high-order smoothing methods, ARIMA models and forecasting using experience curves. Also examines the forecasting challenges of the 80's and offers pinpoint guidance to management planning techniques.

Known from its last editions as the "Bible of Forecasting", the third edition of this authoritative text has adopted a new approach-one that is as new as the latest trends in the field: "Explaining the past is not adequate for predicting the future". In other words, accurate forecasting requires more than just the fitting of models to historical data. Inside, readers will find the latest techniques used by managers in business today, discover the importance of forecasting and learn how it's accomplished. And readers will develop the necessary skills to meet the increased demand for thoughtful and realistic forecasts.

A gripping tale of how even experts misread the role of chance - from the stock market to doctors' surgeries - "Dance With Chance" argues that we all fall foul of the 'The Illusion of Control', meaning that we underestimate the role of luck in our lives. The authors argue that by understanding how uncertainty operates, we can make palpable improvements to our health, wealth, happiness and careers.