Exploring Taiwan's status, the book outlines ten potential trajectories for its resolution and their implications for U.S.-China relations, which could vary from close cooperation to a renewed cold war. As China's military power increases, the urgency to deter any forceful actions against Taiwan heightens, making the analysis of these outcomes crucial for understanding future geopolitical dynamics.
Escalation is a natural tendency in any form of human competition, and today1s security environment demands that the United States be prepared for a host of escalatory threats. This analysis of escalation dynamics and approaches to escalation management draws on a range of historical examples from World War I through Somalia in the early 1990s to inform escalation-related decisionmaking.
The report examines China's potential to rival the U.S. militarily by 2020, given its projected economic growth. While China's military currently relies on outdated Soviet technology, the analysis assesses the country's commercial technology across nine key industries that could enhance military capabilities. Findings indicate that while China may not achieve technological parity with the U.S. by 2020, its military capabilities are expected to improve significantly over the next 10 to 20 years, necessitating U.S. preparedness for this evolving landscape.
The book offers an in-depth analysis of the Chinese military's capabilities and developments in the years 2000 and 2010, while also forecasting its trajectory for 2020. It examines strategic changes, technological advancements, and organizational shifts within the military, providing valuable insights into China's evolving defense posture and its implications for global security.
"Cold Rivals brings together a distinguished group of scholars from the United States and China to examine the new era of strategic competition in US-China relations. The two countries are now competitors locked in a long-term rivalry, but how volatile the rivalry will become is still to be determined. The book explores not only the historical roots and contemporary foreign policy aspects of this era, but the volume also looks at the economic, military, and technological arenas of US-China strategic competition. In doing so, this volume highlights important differences in US and Chinese perspectives. A final section of the volume explores future scenarios for the relationship from different perspectives but with all of them coming to the sobering conclusion about a future marked by expanding differences, growing tensions, economic disengagement, and pressures for a global competition. This policy-relevant book provides a comprehensive overview of US-China strategic competition and reinvigorates thinking about how to avoid reaching a crisis point"--