Wenjie Dong Livres

This atlas and reference resource assembles the latest research findings on the responsibility and obligation of human society for historical climate change. It clearly and quantitatively estimates to what extent the developed and developing world are responsible for historical climate change with regard to anthropogenic carbon and sulfur emissions as well as global carbon trade, and so provides a potential tool to address the controversial issue of carbon emission reduction in international climate negotiations. Since the quantitative attribution of historical climate change is calculated based on CMIP5 models, the fidelity of these models in representing the observed climate change is also evaluated. In addition to evaluation, future climate change based on CMIP5 models is also shown both on global and regional scales (especially for China and its surrounding areas ) in terms of surface air temperature, precipitation, sea surface temperature, atmospheric circulations and Arctic Sea ice. The atlas also makes various comparisons among different multi-model ensemble methods in order to obtain the most reliable estimation.

This atlas aims to satisfy curiosity about how the climate system will evolve over the next century. It serves as a showcase for advanced earth system models that provided CMIP5 simulations for the IPCC AR5. The focus is on historical climate changes since 1850 and future projections through 2100, utilizing RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios based on climate models. This resource is invaluable for researchers and practitioners interested in the impacts of climate change across various sectors, including agriculture, ecosystems, water resources, energy, health, and international negotiations. Additionally, it highlights the historical responsibilities of developed and developing nations regarding climate change mitigation, referencing their GHG emission reduction pledges post-Cancun Agreement. The atlas includes numerical experiments extending CMIP5 with NCAR’s CESM1.0. Future updates will incorporate new CMIP5 model outputs and revise figures in subsequent editions. The authors are affiliated with notable institutions in China, including Beijing Normal University, the China Meteorological Administration, and Tsinghua University.

"The Atlas of Climate Change-Based on SEAP-CMIP5" is intended to satisfy readers' curiosity: how will our climate system change over the next 100 years?