Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models have become a standard tool in various fields of economics. This type of models has a superior theoretical foundation when compared to the Keynesian models which are traditionally used for policy analysis and forecasting. Although a lot has been done to improve the empirical properties of DSGE models, there is still a need for further research in this field. In this book, the author first considers a closed economy general equilibrium framework to empirically validate the alternative mechanisms for introducing nominal rigidities. As the comparison is done in the context of the Euro area aggregate data, the results provide guidance to researchers dealing with estimation of Euro area DSGE models in general. In the second part of the book, a coherent economic and statistical framework that approximates the structure of the EMU and explicitly accounts for the historical monetary regime change is presented. In such a framework the disaggregate information on the Euro area can be utilized, so that one can explain the area-wide aggregates, and also examine the cross-region linkages.
Ernest Pytlarczyk Livres



This paper presents an estimated DSGE model for the European Monetary Union, addressing heterogeneity within the euro area. Unlike previous studies, it employs an open-economy model with unfiltered data, a more complex task than similar closed-economy exercises. The estimation utilizes disaggregated information, incorporating single country data alongside aggregated EMU data from Fagan et al. (2001). A significant contribution is the proposed strategy for consistent estimation of the currency union model, leveraging information from before and after the adoption of the single currency. This necessitates identifying two distinct data-generating processes, represented by theoretical DSGE models for current and historical monetary regimes. The paper emphasizes regime-switching models within the DSGE framework, where the threshold is precisely known and the switch is permanent. A simple two-region DSGE model is developed, focusing on the German economy within EMU, with Bayesian estimation conducted on data from 1980:q1 to 2003:q4. Additionally, the paper includes: (i) robustness checks of estimation results against alternative data approaches and model structure restrictions, (ii) assessments of the relative importance of various shocks and frictions in explaining model dynamics, and (iii) an evaluation of the model's empirical properties.
Paradoks euro
- 366pages
- 13 heures de lecture
Dlaczego Unia Europejska i wsp�lny rynek odniosły sukces i stanowią wielką wartość dla Europy? Dlaczego wsp�lna waluta jest zagrożeniem dla integracji europejskiej? Czy można ?naprawić? strefę euro i spowodować, aby mogła ona bezpiecznie funkcjonować? Czy można rozwiązać strefę euro, zachowując UE i wsp�lny rynek? Jaką strategię powinna przyjąć Polska wobec euro? Paradoksem jest to, że ?projekt euro?, kt�ry miał stanowić ukoronowanie procesu integracji europejskiej, rozsadza go od środka. Uporczywa obrona euro prowadzi do poważnych konflikt�w i może spowodować dezintegrację UE i rozpad wsp�lnego rynku. Autorzy stawiają dramatyczną tezę, że jedynie zorganizowane rozwiązanie strefy euro i wprowadzenie nowego systemu koordynacji walutowej w Europie może uratować projekt integracji europejskiej. Przedstawiają propozycję przeprowadzenia tego procesu w taki spos�b, aby zachować największe, epokowe osiągnięcia powojennej Europy: Unię Europejską i wsp�lny rynek.