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What happens when scal and/or monetary policy changes systematically? We construct a DSGE model in which agents have to estimate scal and monetary policy rules and assess how uncertainty surrounding the conduct of policymakers in uences transition paths after policy changes. We nd that policy changes of the magnitude often considered in the literature can lead private agents to hold substantially dierent views about the nature of equilibrium than would be predicted by a full information analysis. In particular, random walk-like behavior can be observed for a large number of periods in equilibrium, even though the models we use admit stationary dynamics under full-information rational expectations.
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Tables of transition paths, Josef Hollmayr
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- Année de publication
- 2015
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