This open-access volume presents an Empirical Model of Global Climate, developed by the authors, demonstrating that global warming is likely to remain below 2ºC relative to preindustrial levels this century, provided that both unconditional and conditional Paris INDC commitments are adhered to and that necessary emission reductions are sustained through 2060 and beyond. The first section offers an overview of Earth’s climate system, contrasting historical climatic changes with anthropogenic impacts since the Industrial Revolution. The second section details the authors' climate model, comparing it with those used in the IPCC 2013 Report. Chapter 3 evaluates the unconditional (firm commitments) and conditional Paris INDCs (dependent on financial flow and/or technology transfer) through the model, concluding that adherence to these commitments represents a hopeful path for Earth's climate. The fourth section discusses energy needs and the emissions reductions required to achieve the Paris temperature goals, highlighting challenges in both developing and developed countries. Throughout the book, accessible charts and graphics enhance understanding. The scientific foundations of Chapters 2 and 3 were initially presented at the 96th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society in January 2016.
